26-10 FOMC 9월 회의 의사록 공개
작성자의 핵심 판단
회의는 물가가 2% 목표보다 높고 물가 위험이 상방으로 기운 상황에서 금리를 올리는 것이 적절하다고 봤다. 다만 이후 결정은 들어오는 정보와 위험 균형에 달린다는 조건을 남겼다.
근거 보기 3
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pace. Furthermore, almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. Based on the outlook and the changing balance of risks, all participants viewed a higher target range for the federal funds rate as appropriate. Participants judged that this would support a timelier return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. Many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks. A
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their view of the appropriate setting of the target range for the federal funds rate. Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive. With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end. Participants emphasized, however, that they approached each meeting with an open mind and decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information and its implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Regarding balance sheet policy, a few participants observed that Treasury markets had been
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spending, while inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee underlined its continuing resolve to achieve its dual-mandate goals by indicating in its postmeeting statement that it “will deliver price stability.” Members agreed that the policy action taken would support a timelier return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.: “Effective September 17, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
이 자료에서 다룬 사실
연준은 2026년 9월 15~16일 FOMC 회의 의사록을 공개했다. 의사록에는 전원이 연방기금금리 목표 범위를 0.25%포인트 올려 3.75~4.00%로 정한 내용과, 다수 참가자가 연말 추가 인상이 적절할 수 있다고 본 내용이 담겼다.
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[첨부 보고서 원문] [상세 페이지] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261007a.htm [PDF 원문] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20260916.pdf [파일명] fomcminutes20260916.pdf [페이지 수] 15 [PDF 1페이지] FOMC FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 15–16, 2026 [PDF 2페이지] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 15–16, 2026 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 9:00 a.m.1 Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations
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pace. Furthermore, almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. Based on the outlook and the changing balance of risks, all participants viewed a higher target range for the federal funds rate as appropriate. Participants judged that this would support a timelier return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. Many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks. A
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their view of the appropriate setting of the target range for the federal funds rate. Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive. With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end. Participants emphasized, however, that they approached each meeting with an open mind and decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information and its implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Regarding balance sheet policy, a few participants observed that Treasury markets had been
- 원문 구간 4
spending, while inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee underlined its continuing resolve to achieve its dual-mandate goals by indicating in its postmeeting statement that it “will deliver price stability.” Members agreed that the policy action taken would support a timelier return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.: “Effective September 17, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
그렇게 판단한 이유
참가자들은 에너지 가격과 AI 구축에 따른 비용 압력, 견조한 경제활동, 최대고용 수준에 가까운 노동시장을 함께 들었다. 일부는 현재 금리가 제한적이지 않거나 약간만 제한적이라고 평가했다.
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Many participants cited their business contacts and business surveys as reporting increased cost pressures. [PDF 8페이지] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee 7 Some participants noted that businesses appeared to have been more successful in passing cost increases through to consumers. Participants generally assessed inflation risk as skewed to the upside; some participants remarked that those risks had become more skewed to the upside in recent months. Many participants assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk that cost increases in certain sectors could lead to broader price pressures. Some participants commented that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace aggregate supply over the
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Several participants commented that the scale and pace of the AI buildout had continued to surprise to the upside. Several participants noted that business activity had also been supported by factors such as the high level of corporate earnings, less restrictive regulations, and tariff refunds. Regarding the agricultural sector, a couple of participants observed that conditions in that sector, especially the crop sector, had been strained because of worsening drought and higher prices for diesel and other inputs. Participants observed that consumer spending had been solid. Several participants observed that stock market gains had provided support to consumer spending, particularly among higher-income
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pace. Furthermore, almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. Based on the outlook and the changing balance of risks, all participants viewed a higher target range for the federal funds rate as appropriate. Participants judged that this would support a timelier return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. Many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks. A
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number of participants viewed a higher path for the target range as necessary based on their modal [PDF 10페이지] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee 9 outlooks rather than on risk-management grounds. Some participants remarked that a higher policy rate would diminish the risk of persistently elevated inflation unanchoring inflation expectations and becoming further entrenched. A couple of participants emphasized that a higher policy rate would help prevent sector-specific price increases stemming from energy market disruptions and AI-related demand from broadening out and generating more persistent inflation dynamics. A couple of participants remarked on having increased their estimate of the neutral federal funds rate and thus